Monthly Review
British Resilience Index
Monthly Operating Review · November 2026
National position
Summary
As of the November 2026 release, the British Resilience Index stands at 51 out of 100, a Fragile reading. The national score has held steady since the previous release. That comparison spans two methodology changes described below, a revised trend measure and a new gilt yield indicator, which together add 0.54 points on November data. New source data on its own would have taken the score from 50.69 to 50.14, which rounds to 50.
Population Health remains the largest single contributor to national stress, with a domain score of 76. Public Service Capacity and Housing and Household Formation also sit in the Fragile range. The single highest stress indicator is Households in temporary accommodation (England) (82).
Since the October 2026 release, 17 indicators received a new observation, 3 had a value revised for the same period, 6 had an earlier point in the series restated and 17 changed source. Stress scores moved on 36 indicators whose inputs did not change; that movement is a methodology effect, not new data, and the methodology changes below describe it. The largest release movement among indicators with new or revised data is Prison capacity utilisation (E&W), which has eased 27 points since the previous release.
Data confidence is highest in official statistics series and lowest in official statistics in development measures; the overall confidence score is 0.83.
Indicator changes
Material Movements
Each movement is the change between the two latest observations: an indicator's latest official observation against the one before it, its most recent data step. Most sources publish annually or quarterly, so these movements accumulate over months, not within the release month, and an unchanged row can repeat across monthly reviews until new data lands. This is not the change since the October 2026 release; that comparison is in sections 03 to 05. Scores are stress readings out of 100; higher means more stress.
| Metric | Domain | From | To | Movement (latest data step) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storm overflow spill duration (England) | Environment and Climate | 63 | 24 | −39 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Headroom against fiscal rules | Fiscal Resilience | 67 | 37 | −30 ptsNov 2025 EFO to Nov 2025 EFO |
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 61 | 34 | −27 pts21 Sep 2026 to 19 Oct 2026 |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | 53 | 80 | +27 pts2014 to 2023/4 |
| Rent to income ratio | Housing and Household Formation | 19 | 45 | +26 pts2023 to FYE 2024 |
| Economic inactivity rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 41 | 20 | −21 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Business births minus closures | Work and Productivity | 48 | 29 | −19 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Avoidable mortality | Population Health | 54 | 37 | −17 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | 33 | 49 | +16 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | 86 | 70 | −16 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Persistent school absence (England) | Childhood and Social Floor | 72 | 57 | −15 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | 80 | 66 | −14 ptsJan-Mar 2026 to Apr-Jun 2026 |
| Public sector net borrowing | Fiscal Resilience | 54 | 40 | −14 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Chronic loneliness | Trust and Wellbeing | 28 | 42 | +14 ptsAug 2026 to Sep 2026 |
| Household food insecurity | Living Standards | 42 | 29 | −13 pts2024 to FYE 2024-25 |
| Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England) | Childhood and Social Floor | 68 | 55 | −13 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Employment rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 42 | 30 | −12 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | 88 | 76 | −12 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Air pollution (PM2.5) | Environment and Climate | 15 | 27 | +12 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | 82 | 71 | −11 pts2024 to 2024-25 |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | 43 | 54 | +11 pts2024 to 2024–25 |
| Theft, robbery and burglary (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | 29 | 40 | +11 pts2026 to YE Jun 2026 |
| Rail cancellations (GB) | Infrastructure | 49 | 38 | −11 pts2024 to 2025–26 |
| Crown Court timeliness (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 46 | 56 | +10 pts2025 to Q2 2026 |
| Current budget deficit | Fiscal Resilience | 45 | 35 | −10 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Trust in national government | Trust and Wellbeing | 54 | 64 | +10 ptsMar 2026 to Jun 2026 |
| Neighbourhood belonging | Trust and Wellbeing | 45 | 55 | +10 pts2025 to 2025/26 |
| Real average weekly earnings growth | Living Standards | 59 | 50 | −9 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Children looked after | Childhood and Social Floor | 70 | 62 | −8 pts2024 to Year ending 31 Mar 2025 |
| Anxiety | Trust and Wellbeing | 68 | 76 | +8 ptsQ4 2025 to Q1 2026 |
| Fuel poverty | Living Standards | 13 | 20 | +7 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | 88 | 81 | −7 pts2025 to End Jun 2026 |
| Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24) | Childhood and Social Floor | 60 | 54 | −6 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England) | Public Service Capacity | 34 | 29 | −5 ptsJuly 2026 to August 2026 |
| Offences resulting in charge or summons (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 44 | 39 | −5 ptsYE Mar 2026 to YE Jun 2026 |
| Feeling safe after dark | Trust and Wellbeing | 35 | 40 | +5 ptsYE Mar 2025 to YE Mar 2026 |
| Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | Housing and Household Formation | 77 | 82 | +5 pts2024 to Autumn 2025 |
| 10 year gilt yield | Fiscal Resilience | 71 | 76 | +5 ptsAug 2026 to Sep 2026 |
System overview
Domain-Level Position
Domain movement is the change since the October 2026 release.
| Domain | Score | Band | Movement (since the October 2026 release) | Weight | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population Health | 76 | −7 pts | 12% | Drug-poisoning deaths | |
| Public Service Capacity | 63 | +2 pts | 12% | Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | |
| Housing and Household Formation | 58 | −4 pts | 11% | Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | |
| Childhood and Social Floor | 56 | +1 pts | 11% | EHC plan timeliness | |
| Trust and Wellbeing | 55 | −1 pts | 6% | Anxiety | |
| Rule of Law and Safety | 47 | −10 pts | 9% | Fraud incidents (CSEW) | |
| Living Standards | 42 | +7 pts | 13% | Energy bill affordability pressure | |
| Fiscal Resilience | 40 | +12 pts | 7% | 10 year gilt yield | |
| Infrastructure | 34 | +4 pts | 3% | Industrial electricity price premium | |
| Work and Productivity | 30 | +1 pts | 11% | Inactivity due to long-term sickness | |
| Environment and Climate | 27 | −2 pts | 5% | Bathing water quality |
Stress attribution
Primary Stress Contributors
Key deteriorations this release
Key deteriorations
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic lonelinessnew observation, source changed | Trust and Wellbeing | 42 | +25 pts | 0.75 |
| Real average weekly earnings growthvalue revised, history restated | Living Standards | 50 | +22 pts | 0.85 |
| Theft, robbery and burglary (CSEW)new observation, source changed | Rule of Law and Safety | 40 | +20 pts | 0.80 |
| Public sector net borrowinghistory restated | Fiscal Resilience | 40 | +15 pts | 0.90 |
| Public sector net investmenthistory restated | Fiscal Resilience | 26 | +10 pts | 0.85 |
Change since the October 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.
Weighted contribution to national score
Positive movements
Improving Indicators
Key improvements
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W)new observation, source changed | Rule of Law and Safety | 34 | −27 pts | 0.95 |
| Suicide ratenew observation, source changed | Population Health | 76 | −21 pts | 0.85 |
| Fraud incidents (CSEW)new observation, source changed | Rule of Law and Safety | 68 | −14 pts | 0.75 |
| Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England)new observation | Childhood and Social Floor | 55 | −12 pts | 0.85 |
| Energy bill affordability pressurenew observation, source changed | Living Standards | 55 | −11 pts | 0.70 |
Change since the October 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.
Risk register
Critical Risks
Population Health is rated High stress (score 76). The primary contributor is Drug-poisoning deaths (stress score 82).
| Risk | Domain | Severity | Trend | Confidence | Evidence | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | stable | High0.90 | 135.58 thousand households, Q1 2026 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | stable | High0.90 | 93.90 deaths per million population (age-standardised), 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | Housing and Household Formation | stable | High0.90 | 4793 people, Autumn 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.90 | 80.80 thousand open cases, End Jun 2026 (Ministry of Justice). | stable | |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.85 | 46.10 % of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeks, 2025 (Department for Education). | stable | |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 22.60 % of adults aged 16-64, 2023/4 (NHS England / NatCen). | stable | |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | stable | Medium0.80 | 2.79 million people, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Anxiety | Trust and Wellbeing | stable | High0.85 | 3.30 mean score, 0–10 (higher = more anxious), Q1 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | stable | High0.85 | 11.30 age-standardised deaths per 100,000, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| 10 year gilt yield | Fiscal Resilience | stable | High0.95 | 5.24 % (monthly average), Sep 2026 (Bank of England). | escalate | |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.95 | 7.37 million incomplete pathways, August 2026 (NHS England). | stable | |
| Public sector net debt | Fiscal Resilience | stable | High0.90 | 94.20 % of GDP, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | monitor | |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | improving | Medium0.80 | 2.02 million new requests for adult social care support, 2024-25 (NHS England Digital). | monitor | |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | improving | High0.85 | 87.30 % of bathing waters rated Excellent or Good, 2025 (Environment Agency). | monitor | |
| A&E four-hour performance (England) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.95 | 74.40 % attendances within 4 hours (target 95), September 2026 (NHS England). | monitor | |
| Fraud incidents (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | stable | Medium0.75 | 4.50 million incidents per year, YE Jun 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | stable | Medium0.75 | 3.57 % of people in employment on a zero-hours contract, Apr-Jun 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Trust in national government | Trust and Wellbeing | deteriorating | Medium0.70 | 25.10 % reporting trust, Jun 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Children looked after | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.85 | 67 children looked after per 10,000, Year ending 31 Mar 2025 (Department for Education). | monitor | |
| Social housing waiting lists (England) | Housing and Household Formation | stable | Medium0.75 | 1.34 million households, 31 Mar 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Infant mortality | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.90 | 3.90 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Life satisfaction | Trust and Wellbeing | stable | High0.85 | 7.50 mean score, 0–10, Q1 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable |
Data provenance
Data Quality Notes
The strongest tier by mean confidence is official statistics (mean 0.85, 55 indicators).
The weakest tier is official statistics in development (mean 0.7, 2 indicators).
3 indicators carry low data confidence (below 0.70) and require additional scrutiny.
55 of 74 indicators are sourced from official statistics, providing a robust data foundation.
Analytical queries
Open Questions
No indicator this release combines elevated stress with low data confidence, so no data-quality questions are flagged. Open questions are raised where a high-stress reading rests on a series whose confidence score falls below 0.70, and none currently meet that test.
Forward look
Next Review Focus
Indicators requiring close monitoring before the next release. Movements quoted in the reasons are the change since the October 2026 release.
Public sector net debt
Stress score 72 and up 5 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Adult social care requests
Stress score 71 and up 3 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Bathing water quality
Stress score 70 and up 1 point since the previous release; requires monitoring.
A&E four-hour performance (England)
Stress score 68 and up 3 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Children looked after
Stress score 62 and up 3 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Delayed hospital discharges (England)
Stress score 58 and up 1 point since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Process notes
Methodology & Source Updates
Methodology changes
- The trend component is revised. It measured the latest move as a percentage of the previous value, so any 10 per cent relative move spanned the whole 0 to 100 range. On small rates and survey estimates that amplified noise: in October, chronic loneliness falling from 8 to 6 per cent, inside the survey's confidence interval, was reported as the largest movement of the release, and 14 of 65 trended indicators sat at the cap. The move is now measured against each indicator's own best to worst range, so it shifts the trend by as many points as it shifts the level, and only a move of half the range reaches the cap. Most capped indicators had been capped at the improving end, so the old rule understated stress. On November data the change moves the UK score from 50.14 to 50.54. Stress scores on many indicators with unchanged figures move in this release for this reason alone.
- A 10 year gilt yield indicator joins Fiscal Resilience: the monthly average of the Bank of England's daily nominal par yield (series IUDMNPY), scored on its rank against the series since 1995. The domain's other indicators are annual accounts that see higher borrowing costs only as debt is refinanced; the yield is the market's price on UK borrowing now. The latest month is September 2026, 5.24 per cent. It has no October comparator, so it carries no release delta this month and is not counted among the indicators compared with the previous release. On November data it moves the UK score by a further 0.14.
- A known limitation, not a change: prison capacity utilisation is scored by rank against only 11 irregular readings, so small moves swing its stress score. It is reported as the largest movement of this release, 27 points, on a fall from 98.0 to 97.3 per cent. Read that change in percentage points. The estate remains close to full.
Source updates
- 72 of 74 indicators in this release are drawn from verified official sources; the remaining 2 are provisional placeholders, marked as seed and excluded from scoring.
Full methodology: /methodology · Data sources: /data-sources