Monthly Review
British Resilience Index
Monthly Operating Review · October 2026
National position
Summary
As of the October 2026 release, the British Resilience Index stands at 51 out of 100, a Fragile reading. The national score has held steady since the previous release.
Population Health remains the largest single contributor to national stress, with a domain score of 83. Public Service Capacity and Housing and Household Formation also sit in the Fragile range. The single highest stress indicator is Suicide rate (97).
Since the September 2026 release, 15 indicators received a new observation, 6 had a value revised for the same period, 9 had an earlier point in the series restated and 14 changed source. The largest release movement among indicators with new or revised data is Chronic loneliness, which has eased 44 points since the previous release.
Data confidence is highest in official statistics series and lowest in official statistics in development measures; the overall confidence score is 0.83.
Indicator changes
Material Movements
Each movement is the change between the two latest observations: an indicator's latest official observation against the one before it, its most recent data step. Most sources publish annually or quarterly, so these movements accumulate over months, not within the release month, and an unchanged row can repeat across monthly reviews until new data lands. This is not the change since the September 2026 release; that comparison is in sections 03 to 05. Scores are stress readings out of 100; higher means more stress.
| Metric | Domain | From | To | Movement (latest data step) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic loneliness | Trust and Wellbeing | 61 | 17 | −44 ptsMay 2026 to Aug 2026 |
| Storm overflow spill duration (England) | Environment and Climate | 63 | 20 | −43 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Real average weekly earnings growth | Living Standards | 67 | 28 | −39 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Rent to income ratio | Housing and Household Formation | 14 | 53 | +39 pts2023 to FYE 2024 |
| Public sector net borrowing | Fiscal Resilience | 64 | 25 | −39 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Rail cancellations (GB) | Infrastructure | 63 | 24 | −39 pts2024 to 2025–26 |
| Current budget deficit | Fiscal Resilience | 59 | 22 | −37 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Headroom against fiscal rules | Fiscal Resilience | 67 | 30 | −37 ptsNov 2025 EFO to Nov 2025 EFO |
| Suicide rate | Population Health | 65 | 97 | +32 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Energy bill affordability pressure | Living Standards | 35 | 66 | +31 ptsJul 2026 to Aug 2026 |
| Trust in national government | Trust and Wellbeing | 47 | 78 | +31 ptsMar 2026 to Jun 2026 |
| Business births minus closures | Work and Productivity | 48 | 19 | −29 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Theft, robbery and burglary (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | 49 | 20 | −29 pts2025 to YE Mar 2026 |
| Economic inactivity rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 42 | 16 | −26 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Household food insecurity | Living Standards | 42 | 17 | −25 pts2024 to FYE 2024-25 |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | 62 | 87 | +25 pts2014 to 2023/4 |
| Air pollution (PM2.5) | Environment and Climate | 4 | 29 | +25 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | 41 | 63 | +22 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Young people not in education, employment or training (16–24) | Childhood and Social Floor | 74 | 52 | −22 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England) | Public Service Capacity | 53 | 32 | −21 ptsJune 2026 to July 2026 |
| Persistent school absence (England) | Childhood and Social Floor | 64 | 44 | −20 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | 100 | 81 | −19 pts2025 to End Jun 2026 |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | 87 | 68 | −19 pts2024 to 2024-25 |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | 43 | 62 | +19 pts2024 to 2024–25 |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | 88 | 69 | −19 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Avoidable mortality | Population Health | 54 | 36 | −18 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | 98 | 83 | −15 pts2023 to 2024 |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | 80 | 66 | −14 ptsJan-Mar 2026 to Apr-Jun 2026 |
| Employment rate (16–64) | Work and Productivity | 42 | 29 | −13 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Neighbourhood belonging | Trust and Wellbeing | 43 | 56 | +13 pts2025 to 2025/26 |
| Fuel poverty | Living Standards | 0 | 12 | +12 pts2024 to 2025 |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | 93 | 81 | −12 pts2024 to 2025 |
| Debt interest as share of revenue | Fiscal Resilience | 46 | 58 | +12 pts2024 to 2025-26 |
| Anxiety | Trust and Wellbeing | 68 | 80 | +12 ptsQ4 2025 to Q1 2026 |
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 50 | 61 | +11 pts24 Aug 2026 to 21 Sep 2026 |
| Household arrears and insolvency pressure | Living Standards | 40 | 50 | +10 pts2024 to 2025 |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England) | Public Service Capacity | 66 | 76 | +10 ptsJune 2026 to July 2026 |
| Children's mental-health caseload | Childhood and Social Floor | 65 | 55 | −10 ptsJune 2026 to July 2026 |
| Income inequality (Gini, disposable) | Living Standards | 42 | 51 | +9 ptsFYE2023 to FYE 2024 |
| Delayed hospital discharges (England) | Public Service Capacity | 65 | 57 | −8 ptsJuly 2026 to August 2026 |
| Children looked after | Childhood and Social Floor | 67 | 59 | −8 pts2024 to Year ending 31 Mar 2025 |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | 85 | 78 | −7 pts2024 to 2025 |
| GP access pressure (England) | Public Service Capacity | 49 | 56 | +7 ptsJuly 2026 to August 2026 |
| Adult social care vacancies | Public Service Capacity | 26 | 19 | −7 pts2025 to 2025-26 |
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | 90 | 83 | −7 pts2025 to Q1 2026 |
| Offences resulting in charge or summons (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | 33 | 40 | +7 pts2026 to YE Mar 2026 |
| A&E four-hour performance (England) | Public Service Capacity | 59 | 65 | +6 ptsJuly 2026 to August 2026 |
| Public sector net investment | Fiscal Resilience | 22 | 16 | −6 pts2025 to 2026 |
| Feeling safe after dark | Trust and Wellbeing | 36 | 41 | +5 ptsYE Mar 2025 to YE Mar 2026 |
System overview
Domain-Level Position
Domain movement is the change since the September 2026 release.
| Domain | Score | Band | Movement (since the September 2026 release) | Weight | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population Health | 83 | no change | 12% | Suicide rate | |
| Housing and Household Formation | 62 | no change | 11% | Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | |
| Public Service Capacity | 61 | −3 pts | 12% | Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | |
| Rule of Law and Safety | 57 | +6 pts | 9% | Fraud incidents (CSEW) | |
| Trust and Wellbeing | 56 | no change | 6% | Anxiety | |
| Childhood and Social Floor | 55 | −4 pts | 11% | EHC plan timeliness | |
| Living Standards | 35 | +5 pts | 13% | Energy bill affordability pressure | |
| Infrastructure | 30 | −17 pts | 3% | Industrial electricity price premium | |
| Work and Productivity | 29 | no change | 11% | Inactivity due to long-term sickness | |
| Environment and Climate | 29 | no change | 5% | Bathing water quality | |
| Fiscal Resilience | 28 | −2 pts | 7% | Public sector net debt |
Stress attribution
Primary Stress Contributors
Key deteriorations this release
Key deteriorations
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy bill affordability pressurenew observation, history restated, source changed | Living Standards | 66 | +35 pts | 0.70 |
| Trust in national governmentnew observation, source changed | Trust and Wellbeing | 78 | +31 pts | 0.70 |
| GP access pressure (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 56 | +11 pts | 0.75 |
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W)new observation | Rule of Law and Safety | 61 | +11 pts | 0.95 |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 76 | +8 pts | 0.95 |
Change since the September 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.
Weighted contribution to national score
Positive movements
Improving Indicators
Key improvements
| Metric | Domain | Score | Movement | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic lonelinessnew observation, source changed | Trust and Wellbeing | 17 | −44 pts | 0.75 |
| Rail cancellations (GB)new observation, source changed | Infrastructure | 24 | −39 pts | 0.85 |
| Cancer 62-day treatment standard (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 32 | −22 pts | 0.90 |
| Public sector net investmentvalue revised, history restated | Fiscal Resilience | 16 | −14 pts | 0.85 |
| Delayed hospital discharges (England)new observation, source changed | Public Service Capacity | 57 | −13 pts | 0.80 |
Change since the September 2026 release. Only indicators whose inputs changed since that release are listed: a new observation, a revised value, a restated series or a changed source.
Risk register
Critical Risks
Population Health is rated High stress (score 83). The primary contributor is Suicide rate (stress score 97).
| Risk | Domain | Severity | Trend | Confidence | Evidence | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suicide rate | Population Health | deteriorating | High0.85 | 11.40 age-standardised deaths per 100,000, 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Common mental-health condition prevalence | Population Health | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 22.60 % of adults aged 16-64, 2023/4 (NHS England / NatCen). | stable | |
| Rough sleeping snapshot (England) | Housing and Household Formation | deteriorating | High0.90 | 4793 people, Autumn 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Households in temporary accommodation (England) | Housing and Household Formation | deteriorating | High0.90 | 135.58 thousand households, Q1 2026 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Drug-poisoning deaths | Population Health | stable | High0.90 | 93.90 deaths per million population (age-standardised), 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Fraud incidents (CSEW) | Rule of Law and Safety | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 4.50 million incidents per year, YE Mar 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.90 | 80.80 thousand open cases, End Jun 2026 (Ministry of Justice). | stable | |
| EHC plan timeliness | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.85 | 46.10 % of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeks, 2025 (Department for Education). | stable | |
| Anxiety | Trust and Wellbeing | deteriorating | High0.85 | 3.30 mean score, 0–10 (higher = more anxious), Q1 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate | |
| Inactivity due to long-term sickness | Work and Productivity | stable | Medium0.80 | 2.79 million people, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Trust in national government | Trust and Wellbeing | deteriorating | Medium0.70 | 25.10 % reporting trust, Jun 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | escalate | |
| NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.95 | 7.33 million incomplete pathways, July 2026 (NHS England). | escalate | |
| Bathing water quality | Environment and Climate | improving | High0.85 | 87.30 % of bathing waters rated Excellent or Good, 2025 (Environment Agency). | stable | |
| Adult social care requests | Public Service Capacity | improving | Medium0.80 | 2.02 million new requests for adult social care support, 2024-25 (NHS England Digital). | stable | |
| Disadvantage attainment gap (KS4, England) | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.85 | 3.92 gap index, 2024 (Department for Education). | stable | |
| Public sector net debt | Fiscal Resilience | stable | High0.90 | 94.20 % of GDP, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Energy bill affordability pressure | Living Standards | deteriorating | Medium0.70 | 35 % of bill-payers finding energy bills difficult to afford, Aug 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | monitor | |
| Zero-hours contracts | Work and Productivity | stable | Medium0.75 | 3.57 % of people in employment on a zero-hours contract, Apr-Jun 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| A&E four-hour performance (England) | Public Service Capacity | stable | High0.95 | 75 % attendances within 4 hours (target 95), August 2026 (NHS England). | monitor | |
| Unemployment rate (16+) | Work and Productivity | deteriorating | High0.90 | 4.90 %, 2025 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Crown Court timeliness (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | deteriorating | High0.85 | 365 median days, offence to completion, Q2 2026 (Ministry of Justice). | monitor | |
| Net additional dwellings | Housing and Household Formation | deteriorating | Medium0.75 | 208.60 thousand net additional dwellings (England), 2024–25 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Social housing waiting lists (England) | Housing and Household Formation | stable | Medium0.75 | 1.34 million households, 31 Mar 2025 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). | stable | |
| Infant mortality | Childhood and Social Floor | stable | High0.90 | 3.90 infant deaths per 1,000 live births, 2024 (Office for National Statistics). | stable | |
| Prison capacity utilisation (E&W) | Rule of Law and Safety | stable | High0.95 | 98 % of usable operational capacity, 21 Sep 2026 (Ministry of Justice). | monitor | |
| Life satisfaction | Trust and Wellbeing | stable | High0.85 | 7.50 mean score, 0–10, Q1 2026 (Office for National Statistics). | stable |
Data provenance
Data Quality Notes
The strongest tier by mean confidence is official statistics (mean 0.85, 54 indicators).
The weakest tier is official statistics in development (mean 0.7, 2 indicators).
3 indicators carry low data confidence (below 0.70) and require additional scrutiny.
54 of 73 indicators are sourced from official statistics, providing a robust data foundation.
Analytical queries
Open Questions
No indicator this release combines elevated stress with low data confidence, so no data-quality questions are flagged. Open questions are raised where a high-stress reading rests on a series whose confidence score falls below 0.70, and none currently meet that test.
Forward look
Next Review Focus
Indicators requiring close monitoring before the next release. Movements quoted in the reasons are the change since the September 2026 release.
Anxiety
Stress score 80 and up 7 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Trust in national government
Stress score 78 and up 31 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
NHS referral-to-treatment waiting list (England)
Stress score 76 and up 8 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Energy bill affordability pressure
Stress score 66 and up 35 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
A&E four-hour performance (England)
Stress score 65 and up 4 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Crown Court timeliness (E&W)
Stress score 63 and up 5 points since the previous release; requires monitoring.
Process notes
Methodology & Source Updates
Methodology changes
- No methodology changes in this release.
Source updates
- 71 of 73 indicators in this release are drawn from verified official sources; the remaining 2 are provisional placeholders, marked as seed and excluded from scoring.
Full methodology: /methodology · Data sources: /data-sources