Metric permalink
Headroom against fiscal rules
Part of the Fiscal Resilience domain. OBR estimate of the margin between forecast borrowing and the government's stated fiscal rules, in nominal billions, indicating the buffer before a breach.
Latest data
Latest reading
Nov 2025 EFO
Change between the two latest observations (Nov 2025 EFO to Nov 2025 EFO), in stress score.
A lower reading is treated as worse for this indicator.
Score composition
Stress score
Since the August 2026 release
What changed on this indicator between the two releases: method only.
Blended from two measured components: (2/3 weight) and trend (1/3 weight); where no trend can be computed the metric is scored on its level alone. Volatility is published as a diagnostic and does not enter the blend. Full formula on the methodology page.
Level · 2/3 weight
Bounds: scored against fixed best/worst limits, used until a metric has about eight years of verified data to rank against.
Trend · 1/3 weight
Measured from the direction and size of the change between the two most recent readings.
Volatility · diagnostic, not blended
50Provisional: fewer than four historical readings are available, so this defaults to a mid range score rather than a measured figure.
Data confidence and provenance
Confidence and source
How much weight to put on the reading, the mean data-confidence across the component metrics (source quality, recency and completeness).
Source
Economic and Fiscal Outlook
- Update frequency
- Biannual
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- OBR
- Series ID
- headroom against the fiscal mandate
- Frequency
- annual
- Accessed
- 13 June 2026
Known weakness
Highly model-dependent; OBR forecasts carry substantial uncertainty bands that are not reflected in the headline number, and rules themselves may be redefined.
Notes
Verified official value from OBR (headroom against the fiscal mandate), accessed 2026-06-13.
Historical values
History
| Period | Value | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 |