Metric permalink

Current budget deficit

Official

Part of the Fiscal Resilience domain. Current budget balance (excluding investment) as a percentage of GDP; positive values indicate a deficit, meaning day-to-day spending exceeds receipts.

Latest data

Latest reading

Latest value
1.6% of GDP (positive = deficit)

2026

Previous value
2.6% of GDP (positive = deficit)
−38 pts

Change between the two latest observations (2025 to 2026), in stress score.

Direction of badnesshigher is worse

A higher reading is treated as worse for this indicator.

Score composition

Stress score

22/100

Since the August 2026 release

−8 ptsfrom 30 to 22

What changed on this indicator between the two releases: value revised.

Blended from two measured components: (2/3 weight) and trend (1/3 weight); where no trend can be computed the metric is scored on its level alone. Volatility is published as a diagnostic and does not enter the blend. Full formula on the methodology page.

Level · 2/3 weight

32percentile

Percentile: this metric is scored against its own history, where today sits between its best and worst recorded years.

Trend · 1/3 weight

0improving

Measured from the direction and size of the change between the two most recent readings.

Volatility · diagnostic, not blended

100

Measured from how much this indicator has swung period on period across its recorded history.

Data confidence and provenance

Confidence and source

0.85High0.85

How much weight to put on the reading, the mean data-confidence across the component metrics (source quality, recency and completeness).

Source

Office for National StatisticsOfficial

Public sector finances

Update frequency
Monthly
Reliability
high
View source series ↗

Provenance

Provider
ONS
Series ID
JW2V/PUSF
Frequency
quarterly
Accessed
25 August 2026

Known weakness

Current budget balance is the fiscal rule metric but its definition can be adjusted by the government, meaning the threshold for 'breach' is not fixed.

Notes

Verified official value from ONS (JW2V/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-25.

Historical values

History

PeriodValueRelative
20070.9
20081
20094.3
20107.1
20116.2
20125.4
20135.2
20144.2
20153.2
20162.5
20171
20180.6
2019-0.1
20200.7
202111.3
20222.8
20233.1
20242.4
20252.6
20261.6