Metric permalink
Current budget deficit
Part of the Fiscal Resilience domain. Current budget balance (excluding investment) as a percentage of GDP; positive values indicate a deficit, meaning day-to-day spending exceeds receipts.
Latest data
Latest reading
2026
A higher reading is treated as worse for this indicator.
Score composition
Stress score
Blended from three components: (60% weight), trend (30% weight) and volatility (10% weight). Full formula on the methodology page.
Level · 60% weight
Percentile: this metric is scored against its own history, where today sits between its best and worst recorded years.
Trend · 30% weight
Measured from the direction and size of the change between the two most recent readings.
Volatility · 10% weight
100Measured from how much this indicator has swung period on period across its recorded history.
Data confidence and provenance
Confidence and source
How much weight to put on the reading, the mean data-confidence across the component metrics (source quality, recency and completeness).
Source
Public sector finances
- Update frequency
- Monthly
- Reliability
- high
Provenance
- Provider
- ONS
- Series ID
- JW2V/PUSF
- Frequency
- quarterly
- Accessed
- 13 August 2026
Known weakness
Current budget balance is the fiscal rule metric but its definition can be adjusted by the government, meaning the threshold for 'breach' is not fixed.
Notes
Verified official value from ONS (JW2V/PUSF), accessed 2026-08-13.
Historical values
History
| Period | Value | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 0.9 | |
| 2008 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 4.3 | |
| 2010 | 7.1 | |
| 2011 | 6.2 | |
| 2012 | 5.4 | |
| 2013 | 5.2 | |
| 2014 | 4.2 | |
| 2015 | 3.2 | |
| 2016 | 2.5 | |
| 2017 | 1 | |
| 2018 | 0.6 | |
| 2019 | -0.1 | |
| 2020 | 0.7 | |
| 2021 | 11.3 | |
| 2022 | 2.8 | |
| 2023 | 3.1 | |
| 2024 | 2.4 | |
| 2025 | 2.6 | |
| 2026 | 1.5 |