# The UK Chronic Risks Analysis: what the official statistics say about the Government's 26 chronic risks

In July 2025 the Cabinet Office and the Government Office for Science published the first Chronic Risks Analysis: 26 slow moving risks in seven themes, from fraud and antimicrobial resistance to skills shortages and climate change. It contains no scores and no time series. This page puts it against the numbers: which of the 26 the British Resilience Index measures, what the latest official statistics say where the document's evidence has aged, which of the index's most stressed indicators it never names, and which of its risks could be measured but are not.

Source page: https://britishresilienceindex.com/deep-dive/chronic-risks
Machine readable data: https://britishresilienceindex.com/data/deep-dive/chronic-risks.json

## How to read this

The Chronic Risks Analysis is a qualitative foresight document, not a dataset. Each risk gets a definition, a page of current evidence, example vulnerabilities and mitigations, and scenarios. Its figures are quoted here exactly as it prints them, with the page number and the source it cites; they are the Government's claims, not this site's. The index values are the September 2026 release of the British Resilience Index, data cutoff 25 August 2026. Where a figure the document quotes is set against a later official release, the later figure is transcribed from the publisher's own bulletin and linked, never computed. The coverage judgements (measured, partial, not measured) are this site's, and every one names the indicator it rests on so it can be checked.

## What the Chronic Risks Analysis is, and is not

The Chronic Risks Analysis is the Government's first assessment of slow moving risk, published on 8 July 2025 by the Cabinet Office and the Government Office for Science as the companion to the National Risk Register of January 2025, which covers acute emergencies. It identifies 26 chronic risks in seven themes and, for each, sets out a definition, current evidence, example vulnerabilities, example mitigations and what the future might hold. It was built by futures workshops and expert challenge rather than measurement, and it says so: it is not about predicting the future, and it is a snapshot in time that does not endeavour to present a regularly updated view. There are no scores, no rankings and no time series anywhere in its 132 pages.

**Facts**

| label | value |
|---|---|
| Published | 8 July 2025 |
| Risks and themes | 26 in 7 |
| Scores, rankings or time series | None |
| Next edition promised | Before the end of this Parliament |

- **Note**: The Resilience Action Plan's 2026 implementation report, published on 14 July 2026, mentions the analysis once and gives no date for the next edition. The Cabinet Office also runs a chronic risk dashboard, but it is a beta behind a departmental login and nothing from it is public. This page therefore treats the July 2025 document as the current one.

## Which of the Government's chronic risks the index measures

The index scores 71 indicators in 11 domains, all from official series. Set against the 26 risks, 5 are measured directly, 4 are measured through a consequence or proxy the chapter itself names, and 17 are not measured at all. The split is not accidental. The index measures the condition of the country now, from the inside; most of the 26 are geopolitical, technological or biological risks that act on the country from outside, or that no official series yet counts. Each row shows the figure the document itself chose to highlight, then the indicators the judgement rests on with their September 2026 value and stress band.

**Themes**

- Security
- Technology and cyber security
- Geopolitical
- Environmental
- Societal
- Biosecurity
- Economic

**Id**: terrorism · **Theme**: Security · **Name**: Changes in the nature of terrorism · **Page**: 15 · **Callout**: Nine terrorist attacks in the UK between 2018 and 2023, killing six people and injuring 20 · **Callout source**: CONTEST 2023, cited on page 16 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No index indicator. The Home Office publishes terrorism arrests quarterly; see the gaps section.

**Id**: soc · **Theme**: Security · **Name**: Changes in the nature of serious and organised crime · **Page**: 19 · **Callout**: The yearly cost of serious and organised crime to the UK is 47 billion pounds · **Callout source**: Serious and Organised Crime Strategy 2023 to 2028, cited on page 20 · **Coverage**: partial · **Coverage label**: Partial · **Indicators**: [object Object],[object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: The index measures two of the harms the chapter names, drug poisoning deaths and acquisitive crime, not organised crime itself.

**Id**: fraud · **Theme**: Security · **Name**: Fraud and illicit finance · **Page**: 23 · **Callout**: 3.9 million fraud offences in the year ending June 2024 · **Callout source**: ONS Crime Survey for England and Wales, cited on page 23 · **Coverage**: measured · **Coverage label**: Measured · **Indicators**: [object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: The same survey series the CRA cites, one indicator in the Rule of Law and Safety domain.

**Id**: cyber · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Name**: Changes in the nature of cyber security threats · **Page**: 28 · **Callout**: 43 per cent of UK businesses experienced cyber attacks within a year · **Callout source**: DSIT Cyber Security Breaches Survey 2025, cited on page 29 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**: [object Object] · **Note**: Not in the scored index. This site's cyber security page reconciles the same survey and the NCSC incident count.

**Id**: encryption · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Name**: Impacts from the use of end to end encryption · **Page**: 13 · **Callout**: Listed as under review; no assessment published · **Callout source**: Footnote to the list of risks, page 13 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: The one risk on the list without a chapter.

**Id**: digital-platforms · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Name**: Impacts from increasing reliance on digital platforms · **Page**: 32 · **Callout**: Online sales were 26.6 per cent of UK retail sales in May 2022; 46 per cent of over 75s did not use the internet in 2020 · **Callout source**: ONS, cited on pages 32 to 33 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**: [object Object] · **Note**: The index's gigabit coverage indicator measures access, not dependence, so it is not counted.

**Id**: tech-dominance · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Name**: Dominance of global technology companies and concentration of risk · **Page**: 36 · **Callout**: Two companies control 70 to 90 per cent of the UK cloud computing market · **Callout source**: CMA cloud services market investigation, provisional, cited on page 37 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**: [object Object] · **Note**: No indicator; the CMA's final decision came three weeks after the CRA (see the changes section).

**Id**: ai · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Name**: Impacts from use and capability of artificial intelligence · **Page**: 40 · **Callout**: The compute used to train AI models doubles every 3 to 4 months · **Callout source**: DSIT Future of Compute review 2023, cited on page 41 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**: [object Object] · **Note**: No indicator.

**Id**: institutions · **Theme**: Geopolitical · **Name**: Challenges to international institutions · **Page**: 45 · **Callout**: Only eight people convicted by the International Criminal Court in 17 years · **Callout source**: Sterio 2020, cited on page 46 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: Outside the index by design: the index measures domestic conditions.

**Id**: state-threats · **Theme**: Geopolitical · **Name**: State threats · **Page**: 49 · **Callout**: The chapter carries no figure · **Callout source**: Pages 49 to 52 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**: [object Object] · **Note**: Outside the index by design, and the CRA itself publishes no number for it.

**Id**: climate · **Theme**: Environmental · **Name**: Climate change · **Page**: 54 · **Callout**: 5.5 million homes and businesses are at risk of flooding in the UK · **Callout source**: Environment Agency 2023, cited on page 55 · **Coverage**: measured · **Coverage label**: Measured · **Indicators**: [object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: Territorial emissions are scored. The index's adaptation readiness indicator is a provisional placeholder and is not counted here.

**Id**: biodiversity · **Theme**: Environmental · **Name**: Biodiversity loss · **Page**: 58 · **Callout**: Nearly one in six of the 10,008 British species assessed are threatened with extinction from Great Britain · **Callout source**: State of Nature 2023, cited on page 59 · **Coverage**: measured · **Coverage label**: Measured · **Indicators**: [object Object] · **Site**:  · **Note**: One indicator, the Defra wild bird index.

**Id**: minerals · **Theme**: Environmental · **Name**: Increasing competition for critical minerals · **Page**: 63 · **Callout**: Mineral demand for clean energy technologies will double between 2023 and 2030 on current policies · **Callout source**: IEA Global critical minerals outlook 2024, cited on page 63 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator, and no regular official series.

**Id**: pollution · **Theme**: Environmental · **Name**: Pollution and environmental degradation · **Page**: 67 · **Callout**: Soil pollution costs the UK 1.2 billion pounds a year · **Callout source**: Environment Agency 2023, cited on page 68 · **Coverage**: measured · **Coverage label**: Measured · **Indicators**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: Three indicators: fine particulate air pollution, bathing water quality and storm overflow spills.

**Id**: demographic · **Theme**: Societal · **Name**: Impact of demographic change · **Page**: 73 · **Callout**: The total fertility rate fell to 1.58 children per woman in 2020, the lowest since records began in 1938 · **Callout source**: ONS Births in England and Wales 2021, cited on page 73 · **Coverage**: partial · **Coverage label**: Partial · **Indicators**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: The index scores consequences the chapter predicts, care demand and long term sickness, but has no population or fertility indicator.

**Id**: vulnerable · **Theme**: Societal · **Name**: Disproportionate impact on vulnerable persons · **Page**: 77 · **Callout**: The wealthiest 10 per cent of households held 43 per cent of wealth in Great Britain, the bottom half 9 per cent · **Callout source**: ONS Household total wealth, April 2018 to March 2020, cited on page 78 · **Coverage**: measured · **Coverage label**: Measured · **Indicators**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: The most heavily measured risk on the list: eight indicators across three domains.

**Id**: disinformation · **Theme**: Societal · **Name**: Disinformation and misinformation · **Page**: 82 · **Callout**: Trust in news among UK citizens dropped from 51 per cent in 2015 to 33 per cent in 2023 · **Callout source**: Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2023, cited on page 83 (not an official statistic) · **Coverage**: partial · **Coverage label**: Partial · **Indicators**: [object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: Trust in national government is the nearest official measure the index carries; nothing measures misinformation itself.

**Id**: amr · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Name**: Antimicrobial resistance · **Page**: 87 · **Callout**: Severe antibiotic resistant infections in England rose 6.6 per cent between 2020 and 2022 to nearly 58,000 · **Callout source**: UKHSA ESPAUR report 2022 to 2023, cited on page 88 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator. UKHSA publishes the series annually; see the gaps section.

**Id**: animal-disease · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Name**: Animal diseases · **Page**: 91 · **Callout**: The 2001 foot and mouth outbreak cost over 8 billion pounds; bovine tuberculosis costs the government 70 million pounds a year · **Callout source**: NAO 2002 and Defra 2018, cited on page 92 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator.

**Id**: foodborne · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Name**: Foodborne diseases · **Page**: 96 · **Callout**: An estimated 2.4 million cases, 16,000 hospitalisations and over 180 deaths in 2018, costing 9.1 billion pounds a year · **Callout source**: FSA Burden of Foodborne Disease 2018, cited on page 97 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator.

**Id**: plant-pests · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Name**: Plant pests · **Page**: 101 · **Callout**: Six quarantine pests are already established in Great Britain; potato blight control costs 55 million pounds a year · **Callout source**: Defra and EU regulation 2019/2072, cited on page 102 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator.

**Id**: engineering-biology · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Name**: Impacts from the expansion of engineering biology · **Page**: 105 · **Callout**: The global biotechnology market was valued at 1.55 trillion US dollars in 2023 · **Callout source**: Grand View Research 2023, cited on page 105 (a commercial estimate) · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator, and no official series.

**Id**: biological-data · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Name**: Increasing collection and use of human biological data · **Page**: 109 · **Callout**: Over 500 million DNA kits sold since 2006 · **Callout source**: Unsourced callout on page 109; the chapter text says 23andMe has sold over 12 million kits, citing the company · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator. The chapter's headline figure does not match its own text.

**Id**: supply-chains · **Theme**: Economic · **Name**: Reliance on global supply chains · **Page**: 114 · **Callout**: Trade rose from 43 per cent of UK GDP in 1970 to 70 per cent in 2022 · **Callout source**: World Bank Development Indicators, cited on page 114 · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: No indicator. The chapter's worked example is the 2022 energy price spike, which the index and this site do track.

**Id**: emerging-finance · **Theme**: Economic · **Name**: Impacts from emerging financial systems · **Page**: 118 · **Callout**: At least 500 million cryptoasset users worldwide; market capitalisation about 3.1 trillion US dollars in May 2025 · **Callout source**: Statista 2023 and CoinGecko, cited on page 119 (commercial data) · **Coverage**: none · **Coverage label**: Not measured · **Indicators**:  · **Site**:  · **Note**: No indicator.

**Id**: skills · **Theme**: Economic · **Name**: Impacts of ongoing skills shortages and mismatches · **Page**: 122 · **Callout**: Over 100,000 staff shortages and 122,000 vacancies in adult social care, a vacancy rate of 8 per cent · **Callout source**: House of Commons Library 2020, cited on page 123 · **Coverage**: partial · **Coverage label**: Partial · **Indicators**: [object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object] · **Site**: [object Object],[object Object] · **Note**: The index scores the labour market outcomes the chapter worries about, and the social care vacancy rate it quotes, but has no measure of skills mismatch itself.


- **Note**: Coverage judgements are this site's. The indicator values and bands are read from the September 2026 release at build time. A CRA figure marked as commercial or a briefing is quoted because the document chose it, not because this site treats it as an official statistic.

## Where the numbers have moved since the document was written

The analysis is dated July 2025 but its evidence is older: much of it is from 2022 to 2024, and some of it was superseded before publication. These 17 cards take a figure the document prints and set the latest official release of the same measure beside it. 5 have risen, 5 have fallen, 1 is unchanged, 4 had already been overtaken by a newer official figure when the document went to print, and 2 sit on a series whose basis has changed. Every later figure is transcribed from the publisher's bulletin and linked.

**Id**: fraud · **Risk**: Fraud and illicit finance · **Topic**: Fraud incidents, Crime Survey for England and Wales · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: risen · **Note**: ONS reports no statistically significant change on the 4.2 million of the year before. The series has gone 3.2 million (year ending March 2024), 4.2 million, 4.5 million, so the CRA caught it on the way up. · **Status label**: Risen since

**Id**: firearms · **Risk**: Serious and organised crime · **Topic**: Police recorded firearms offences, England and Wales · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: fallen · **Note**: The CRA reports a rise. The two years since its figure show a fall of 18 per cent, in two steps. · **Status label**: Fallen since

**Id**: drug-deaths · **Risk**: Serious and organised crime · **Topic**: Deaths related to drug poisoning, England and Wales · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: superseded · **Note**: The 2023 figure of 5,448 had already broken the 2022 record when it was published in October 2024, nine months before the CRA. The record has now been set three years running. · **Status label**: Superseded before publication

**Id**: nrm · **Risk**: Serious and organised crime · **Topic**: Potential victims of modern slavery referred to the National Referral Mechanism · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: risen · **Note**: The latest quarter is 13 per cent above the same quarter a year earlier. The Home Office warns that some modern slavery publications are delayed by an IT system change. · **Status label**: Risen since

**Id**: cyber · **Risk**: Changes in the nature of cyber security threats · **Topic**: Businesses identifying a cyber breach or attack in the last 12 months · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: unchanged · **Note**: The share of businesses attacked is flat. The count of incidents the NCSC judges nationally significant more than doubled. Both are reconciled on this site's cyber security page. · **Status label**: Unchanged

**Id**: flood · **Risk**: Climate change · **Topic**: Properties in areas at risk of flooding, England · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: superseded · **Note**: The Environment Agency's new national assessment was published seven months before the CRA and is the figure this site's flood risk page uses. The CRA cites the older press release. · **Status label**: Superseded before publication

**Id**: care-vacancies · **Risk**: Impacts of ongoing skills shortages and mismatches · **Topic**: Vacant posts in adult social care, England · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: fallen · **Note**: The CRA's headline for the whole skills chapter rests on a five year old briefing. Vacancies had peaked and fallen twice over by the time it was published. The index tracks Skills for Care's monthly series, at 6.2 per cent. · **Status label**: Fallen since

**Id**: unemployment · **Risk**: Impacts of ongoing skills shortages and mismatches · **Topic**: UK unemployment rate, people aged 16 and over · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: risen · **Note**: The index scores unemployment at 4.9 per cent for 2025 and marks it deteriorating. · **Status label**: Risen since

**Id**: vacancies · **Risk**: Impacts of ongoing skills shortages and mismatches · **Topic**: Job vacancies, UK · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: fallen · **Note**: A chapter about shortages of workers now sits beside a labour market with fewer vacancies and more unemployment than when it was written. · **Status label**: Fallen since

**Id**: skills · **Risk**: Impacts of ongoing skills shortages and mismatches · **Topic**: Employers providing training, and skill shortage vacancies · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: fallen · **Note**: Published 16 days after the CRA. Training kept slipping, but skill shortage vacancies halved, the first fall in the series. · **Status label**: Fallen since

**Id**: fertility · **Risk**: Impact of demographic change · **Topic**: Total fertility rate, England and Wales · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: superseded · **Note**: The CRA's record low had been beaten twice, in 2022 (1.49) and 2023 (1.44), before it was published. The fall it describes is steeper than it says. · **Status label**: Superseded before publication

**Id**: population · **Risk**: Impact of demographic change · **Topic**: UK population · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: risen · **Note**: Three years of growth after the CRA's baseline added about 2.3 million people, more than half the whole increase of the previous decade. · **Status label**: Risen since

**Id**: net-migration · **Risk**: Impact of demographic change · **Topic**: Net migration, UK · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: revised · **Note**: A decade average that stops in 2021 misses the peak that followed and the fall after it. The chapter was written after both had been published. · **Status label**: Series revised

**Id**: energy · **Risk**: Reliance on global supply chains · **Topic**: Ofgem price cap, typical dual fuel household · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: fallen · **Note**: The shock the CRA uses as its worked example has passed through the bill and settled into debt. Both series are on this site's energy bills page. · **Status label**: Fallen since

**Id**: amr · **Risk**: Antimicrobial resistance · **Topic**: Antibiotic resistant infections, England · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: risen · **Note**: The two measures differ: the CRA's counts all severe resistant infections, the latest headline counts bloodstream infections only, so the levels are not comparable. The direction is the same: still rising, with use falling. · **Status label**: Risen since

**Id**: cloud · **Risk**: Dominance of global technology companies and concentration of risk · **Topic**: Competition in UK cloud computing · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: superseded · **Note**: The CRA quotes the provisional findings. The final decision came three weeks after it, and the regulatory outcome eight months after that. · **Status label**: Superseded before publication

**Id**: poverty · **Risk**: Disproportionate impact on vulnerable persons · **Topic**: People in relative low income after housing costs, UK · **Cra**: [object Object] · **Latest**: [object Object] · **Status**: revised · **Note**: DWP says there is a break in the series, so the CRA's 21 per cent and the new 20 per cent are not on the same basis. On the old basis the rate was unchanged at 21 per cent a year after the CRA's figure. · **Status label**: Series revised


**Status counts**: risen 5, fallen 5, superseded 4, unchanged 1, revised 2

## The stresses the document does not name

The September 2026 release places 9 indicators in the high or extreme stress bands. Read against the text of the analysis, 2 are named, 2 appear only in passing, and 5 do not appear at all. That is a difference of purpose more than a disagreement: the document assesses risks that could erode the country over decades, the index measures pressures that are visible in the official statistics now. But suicide, homelessness and the court backlog are chronic by any reading, and the Government's own chronic risk document has no place for them.

**Id**: ph_suicide_rate · **Name**: Suicide rate · **Domain**: Population Health · **Value**: 11.4 age-standardised deaths per 100,000 · **Period**: 2024 · **Stress**: 97 · **Band**: near_midnight · **Band label**: Extreme stress · **Trend**: deteriorating · **Mention**: absent · **Detail**: The word suicide does not appear in the document.

**Id**: ph_mental_illness_prevalence · **Name**: Common mental-health condition prevalence · **Domain**: Population Health · **Value**: 22.6% of adults aged 16-64 · **Period**: 2023/4 · **Stress**: 87 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: deteriorating · **Mention**: passing · **Detail**: Mental health appears six times, as a consequence of social media use, terrorism, animal disease or the cost of living, never as a measured condition of the population.

**Id**: ho_rough_sleeping · **Name**: Rough sleeping snapshot (England) · **Domain**: Housing and Household Formation · **Value**: 4,793 people · **Period**: Autumn 2025 · **Stress**: 85 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: deteriorating · **Mention**: absent · **Detail**: Neither rough sleeping nor homelessness appears.

**Id**: ps_crown_court_backlog · **Name**: Crown Court outstanding caseload (E&W) · **Domain**: Public Service Capacity · **Value**: 80.1 thousand open cases · **Period**: End Mar 2026 · **Stress**: 84 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: deteriorating · **Mention**: absent · **Detail**: The only court in the document is the International Criminal Court; the word backlog appears once, about care.

**Id**: ho_temporary_accommodation · **Name**: Households in temporary accommodation (England) · **Domain**: Housing and Household Formation · **Value**: 135.6 thousand households · **Period**: Q1 2026 · **Stress**: 83 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: deteriorating · **Mention**: absent · **Detail**: Temporary accommodation does not appear; housing appears three times, as a policy area.

**Id**: ph_drug_deaths · **Name**: Drug-poisoning deaths · **Domain**: Population Health · **Value**: 93.9 deaths per million population (age-standardised) · **Period**: 2024 · **Stress**: 83 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: stable · **Mention**: sentence · **Detail**: Named once, in the serious and organised crime chapter: drug related deaths at the highest level since records began in 1993.

**Id**: rl_fraud_incidents · **Name**: Fraud incidents (CSEW) · **Domain**: Rule of Law and Safety · **Value**: 4.5 million incidents per year · **Period**: YE Mar 2026 · **Stress**: 82 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: deteriorating · **Mention**: chapter · **Detail**: Fraud and illicit finance is one of the 26 risks, with its own chapter.

**Id**: ch_ehcp_timeliness · **Name**: EHC plan timeliness · **Domain**: Childhood and Social Floor · **Value**: 46.1% of new EHC plans issued within 20 weeks · **Period**: 2025 · **Stress**: 81 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: stable · **Mention**: absent · **Detail**: Special educational needs and education, health and care plans do not appear.

**Id**: wp_lt_sickness_inactivity · **Name**: Inactivity due to long-term sickness · **Domain**: Work and Productivity · **Value**: 2.792 million people · **Period**: 2025 · **Stress**: 78 · **Band**: critical · **Band label**: High stress · **Trend**: stable · **Mention**: passing · **Detail**: Inactivity appears once, as the trend the Get Britain Working white paper aims to reverse; sickness twice, as staff sickness leave.


- **Note**: Word counts are from the extracted text of the PDF, so terms that appear only inside a diagram would be missed; the impact maps were read by eye for these nine. Stress bands: High stress is a score of 75 to 89, Extreme stress 90 to 100.

## What the document says is most connected, and how much of it the index can see

The CRA closes with an impact map of how its 26 risks act on one another and on the acute risks in the National Risk Register. It names the most connected risks in prose rather than with a table, so the figures below are the ones it prints.

**Facts**

| value | label |
|---|---|
| 11 | direct impacts on acute risks from state threats, the largest total of direct connections |
| 19 | risks and vulnerabilities affected by the dominance of global technology companies, itself affected by only two |
| 14 | risks and vulnerabilities affected by competition for critical minerals, itself affected by only two |

**Most connected**

| risk | why | measured |
|---|---|---|
| Challenges to international institutions | the largest number of direct impacts on other risks | false |
| State threats | the largest total of direct connections, incoming and outgoing | false |
| Changes in the nature of terrorism | tied second largest total of connections | false |
| Changes in the nature of cyber security threats | tied second largest total of connections | false |
| Climate change | tied second largest total of connections | true |

- **Note**: Of the five risks the document calls most connected, the index measures one, climate change, through territorial emissions. The document also names terrorism, serious and organised crime and vulnerable persons as the risks most acted on by the others; the index measures the third of those most heavily of all 26, with eight indicators.

## The 17 risks outside the index, and the official series that exist for them

For 3 of the 17 unmeasured risks a regular official series already exists, and one of them, terrorism, shows why an indicator of chronic risk has to be chosen with care. For 6 more there is a survey, a register or a case list that could support an indicator. For 8 there is nothing regular to count. Figures are quoted only where this site has read them from the publisher.

**Id**: terrorism · **Risk**: Changes in the nature of terrorism · **Theme**: Security · **Series**: yes · **Detail**: Home Office, Operation of police powers under the Terrorism Act 2000, published quarterly. · **Figure**: 3,061 arrests for terrorism related activity in the year ending March 2026, up from 238 the year before; 2,819 of them, 92 per cent, linked to supporting Palestine Action after its proscription on 5 July 2025. 273 people in custody for terrorism connected offences at 31 March 2026. · **Figure source**: Home Office, quarterly update to March 2026, published 23 July 2026 · **Url**: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/operation-of-police-powers-under-tact-2000-to-march-2026 · **Series label**: Official series exists

**Id**: cyber · **Risk**: Changes in the nature of cyber security threats · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Series**: yes · **Detail**: DSIT and Home Office Cyber Security Breaches Survey, annual; NCSC Annual Review incident counts. · **Figure**: 43 per cent of businesses identified a breach or attack in the 2025/2026 survey; the NCSC handled 204 nationally significant incidents in the year to August 2025. · **Figure source**: Reconciled on this site's cyber security page · **Url**: https://britishresilienceindex.com/deep-dive/cyber-security · **Series label**: Official series exists

**Id**: encryption · **Risk**: Impacts from the use of end to end encryption · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Series**: none · **Detail**: No chapter in the CRA and no official series. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: digital-platforms · **Risk**: Impacts from increasing reliance on digital platforms · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Series**: partial · **Detail**: Ofcom's annual Online Nation report measures time online and service use. The ONS Internet users series the CRA relies on ended with its 2020 edition. · **Series label**: A survey or register exists

**Id**: tech-dominance · **Risk**: Dominance of global technology companies and concentration of risk · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Series**: none · **Detail**: The CMA's market investigations and strategic market status decisions are regulatory acts, not a statistical series. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: ai · **Risk**: Impacts from use and capability of artificial intelligence · **Theme**: Technology and cyber security · **Series**: partial · **Detail**: The ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey asks businesses whether they use artificial intelligence. · **Series label**: A survey or register exists

**Id**: institutions · **Risk**: Challenges to international institutions · **Theme**: Geopolitical · **Series**: none · **Detail**: No official UK statistical series. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: state-threats · **Risk**: State threats · **Theme**: Geopolitical · **Series**: none · **Detail**: No published series; the public record is MI5 statements. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: minerals · **Risk**: Increasing competition for critical minerals · **Theme**: Environmental · **Series**: none · **Detail**: The Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre publishes a periodic criticality assessment, not a time series. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: amr · **Risk**: Antimicrobial resistance · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Series**: yes · **Detail**: UKHSA English surveillance programme for antimicrobial utilisation and resistance (ESPAUR), annual. · **Figure**: 20,484 antibiotic resistant bloodstream infections in England in 2024, up 5.2 per cent on 2023 and 13.1 per cent since 2019. · **Figure source**: UKHSA, ESPAUR report 2024 to 2025, published 13 November 2025 · **Url**: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english-surveillance-programme-for-antimicrobial-utilisation-and-resistance-espaur-2024-to-2025-report/espaur-report-2024-to-2025-extended-summary · **Series label**: Official series exists

**Id**: animal-disease · **Risk**: Animal diseases · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Series**: partial · **Detail**: The Animal and Plant Health Agency and Defra publish confirmed cases of notifiable diseases such as avian influenza as they occur. · **Series label**: A survey or register exists

**Id**: foodborne · **Risk**: Foodborne diseases · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Series**: partial · **Detail**: UKHSA publishes laboratory reports of the main gastrointestinal pathogens; the Food Standards Agency's burden estimate the CRA cites is for 2018. · **Series label**: A survey or register exists

**Id**: plant-pests · **Risk**: Plant pests · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Series**: partial · **Detail**: Defra's UK Plant Health Risk Register lists and scores pests, but is a register rather than a count over time. · **Series label**: A survey or register exists

**Id**: engineering-biology · **Risk**: Impacts from the expansion of engineering biology · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Series**: none · **Detail**: No official series. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: biological-data · **Risk**: Increasing collection and use of human biological data · **Theme**: Biosecurity · **Series**: none · **Detail**: No official series. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: supply-chains · **Risk**: Reliance on global supply chains · **Theme**: Economic · **Series**: none · **Detail**: No regular series; the ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey asked about supply disruption during 2022 and 2023. · **Series label**: No official series

**Id**: emerging-finance · **Risk**: Impacts from emerging financial systems · **Theme**: Economic · **Series**: partial · **Detail**: The Financial Conduct Authority runs periodic cryptoasset consumer research. · **Series label**: A survey or register exists


**Series counts**: yes 3, partial 6, none 8

## Questions this raises

- The foreword promises a new Chronic Risks Analysis before the end of this Parliament. Should the next edition carry a measure, even a single indicator, for each of the 26 risks, so that the edition after it can say which got worse?
- Seventeen of the 26 risks have no place in a domestic resilience index. Which of them could be measured from series that already exist: terrorism arrests, resistant bloodstream infections, cyber breaches, modern slavery referrals?
- Nine indicators sit at high or extreme stress in the September 2026 release and only two of them are named in the document. Is that because they are pressures on services rather than chronic risks, or because the document looks outward while the measured stress is at home?
- Several of the document's figures had already been superseded when it was published: the 5.5 million flood figure, the 1.58 fertility rate, the 2020 social care vacancy count, the 2022 drug deaths record. What does a snapshot in time mean when the evidence behind it is two to five years old?
- Terrorism arrests rose from 238 to 3,061 in a year because of one proscription. When a series can move by 1,186 per cent on a legal decision, what should an indicator of chronic risk count?
- The Cabinet Office runs a chronic risk dashboard behind a departmental login. Should it be public?

## Sources

- Chronic Risks Analysis, Cabinet Office and Government Office for Science, 8 July 2025 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chronic-risks-analysis) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Chronic Risks Analysis, the PDF (132 pages) (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6890acc9e8ba9507fc1b09a6/Chronic_Risks_Analysis__CRA_.pdf) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- National Risk Register 2025, Cabinet Office, 16 January 2025 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-2025) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- UK Government Resilience Action Plan: 2026 implementation report, 14 July 2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uk-government-resilience-action-plan-2026-implementation-report/the-uk-government-resilience-action-plan-2026-implementation-report-html) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- British Resilience Index, September 2026 release: methodology and metric register (https://britishresilienceindex.com/methodology) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- ONS, Crime in England and Wales: year ending March 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2026) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- ONS, Deaths related to drug poisoning in England and Wales: 2024 registrations (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsrelatedtodrugpoisoninginenglandandwales/2024registrations) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Home Office, Modern slavery: NRM and DtN statistics, end of year summary 2025 and January to March 2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-referral-mechanism-statistics) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Home Office, Operation of police powers under the Terrorism Act 2000, quarterly update to March 2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/operation-of-police-powers-under-tact-2000-to-march-2026) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Environment Agency, National assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England 2024 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-assessment-of-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-in-england-2024/national-assessment-of-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-in-england-2024) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Skills for Care, The state of the adult social care sector and workforce in England 2025, executive summary (https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/Adult-Social-Care-Workforce-Data/workforceintelligence/resources/Reports/National/The-state-of-the-adult-social-care-sector-and-workforce-in-England-2025-Executive-Summary.pdf) · Skills for Care, free to reuse with attribution
- ONS, Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2026) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- DfE, Employer skills survey 2024 (https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/employer-skills-survey) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- ONS, Births in England and Wales: 2023 and 2024 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2024) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- ONS, Population estimates for the UK: mid-2024 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2024) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- ONS, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2025) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- Ofgem, Energy price cap levels and debt and arrears indicators (https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-regulation/domestic-and-non-domestic/energy-pricing-rules/energy-price-cap/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-levels) · Crown copyright
- UKHSA, ESPAUR report 2024 to 2025, extended summary (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/english-surveillance-programme-for-antimicrobial-utilisation-and-resistance-espaur-2024-to-2025-report/espaur-report-2024-to-2025-extended-summary) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- CMA, Cloud services market investigation final decision (31 July 2025) and package of actions (31 March 2026) (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-announces-package-of-actions-on-business-software-and-cloud-services) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- DWP, Households Below Average Income: FYE 1995 to FYE 2025 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-an-analysis-of-the-uk-income-distribution-fye-1995-to-fye-2025) · Open Government Licence v3.0
- DSIT and Home Office, Cyber Security Breaches Survey 2025/2026 (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/cyber-security-breaches-survey-20252026/cyber-security-breaches-survey-20252026) · Open Government Licence v3.0

## Caveats and data notes

- The Chronic Risks Analysis is the Government's document. Every figure attributed to it is quoted as it prints it, with the page number and the source it cites. Those sources range from ONS statistics to commercial estimates and a 2020 briefing; the crosswalk labels the ones that are not official statistics.
- Coverage is a judgement made by this site: measured means at least one scored indicator tracks the risk itself; partial means the index scores a consequence or a proxy the chapter itself names; not measured means neither. Indicators the index publishes as provisional placeholders are not counted.
- The index measures domestic conditions on official series. Most of the 26 risks are geopolitical, technological or biological and are outside its scope by design, so the gap count is a statement of scope, not a finding that the risks are unimportant.
- Where a later official figure is set beside a CRA figure the two are not always the same measure. The antimicrobial resistance headline changed from all severe resistant infections to bloodstream infections, and DWP rebuilt the low income series with administrative data. Those cards say so and draw no comparison of levels.
- The word counts in the unnamed section come from the text of the PDF extracted with pdftotext. Diagrams rendered as images are not searchable, so a term shown only in an impact map would be missed. The impact maps were read by eye for the nine indicators listed.
- The Cabinet Office chronic risk dashboard is a beta behind a departmental login. Nothing from it appears here, because nothing from it is public.
- Index values are those of the September 2026 release and carry the vintage of each indicator's official publication. The crosswalk shows the period beside each figure.

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British Resilience Index, a non-partisan UK civic data project. Every figure is
reconciled to its primary official publisher before it is shown. Free to cite with
attribution: https://britishresilienceindex.com