{ "meta": { "title": "Free personal care: what older people pay for care in England now, and what Scotland shows", "standfirst": "On 29 September 2026 the Prime Minister announced a National Care Service for England with free personal care for older people, part funded by changing the pensions triple lock from April 2030. Today councils in England spend £12.0bn a year on long term care for people aged 65 and over, and those people pay £3.6bn of it back in charges, 29.6 per cent. Scotland has made personal care free since 2002: in 2024-25 it paid £186m towards the fees of 10,780 self funding care home residents and spent £538m on personal care at home for over 65s. This page sets out those figures, the workforce and the ageing population behind them, and the triple lock record.", "basis": "Personal care means help with tasks such as eating, bathing, dressing and using the toilet. It is not the same as the cost of living in a care home: the Government's announcement says bed and board would still be means tested, as it is in Scotland. The England figures are what councils spend and collect; people who arrange and pay for their own care privately never appear in them, and the ONS estimates that 37 per cent of care home residents in England pay their own way. Nothing on this page is a cost estimate of the new policy: no official costing has been published, and the England charges figure cannot be split between personal care and accommodation.", "sourceNote": "DHSC Adult social care finance report, England, 2024 to 2025 (October 2025, updated November 2025) and activity report (tables corrected June 2026); Scottish Government Free Personal and Nursing Care, Scotland, 2024-25 (November 2025); Skills for Care workforce report 2025; ONS self funders 2022 to 2023 and 2024 based population projections; OBR Fiscal risks and sustainability July 2026; DWP benefit rate abstract 2025 and State Pension uprating analysis 2026 (29 September 2026).", "gceLt65": 12.02, "cc65lt": 3.56, "share65": 29.6, "scotlandSelfFunders": 10780, "scotlandRate": 260.3 }, "announcement": { "eyebrow": "What was announced", "heading": "Free personal care for older people in England, based on need, not ability to pay", "intro": "The Government's announcement of 29 September 2026 commits to a National Care Service in the next parliament, phased in, with Baroness Casey's independent commission due to report on how to implement it by summer 2027. It says the adjusted triple lock is projected to reduce State Pension spending by 15 billion pounds a year by the end of the 2030s and 50 billion pounds a year by 2050. These are the Government's own projections; neither the cost of free personal care nor the size of the funding gap it leaves has been published.", "points": [ { "term": "Covered", "text": "Personal care: help with eating, bathing and using the toilet, free to older people assessed as needing it." }, { "term": "Not covered", "text": "Bed and board in a care home, which remains subject to a means tested contribution, as in Scotland." }, { "term": "Unchanged", "text": "Councils will continue to disregard the value of a home where a partner or dependant lives there, and deferred payment agreements remain available." }, { "term": "Paid for by", "text": "Adjusting the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension rises by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent, with an earnings link over time, instead of the highest of the three every year." }, { "term": "Timetable", "text": "The current triple lock is kept until April 2030. The care service is for the next parliament, in phases; the commission reports by summer 2027." } ], "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-andy-burnham-sets-out-plans-for-a-new-national-care-service" }, "england": { "eyebrow": "England today", "heading": "Councils spend £12.0bn on long term care for over 65s. Those people pay £3.6bn of it", "intro": "Councils in England spent £29.4bn gross on adult social care in 2024-25, 8.6% more than the year before in cash terms. Long term care for people aged 65 and over was £12.0bn of it, and those people paid £3.6bn back to councils in charges, 29.6 per cent of the gross cost. Across all ages client contributions were £4.7bn, up 13.8% on the year, and DHSC reports they are now councils' largest source of income for social care, ahead of the NHS. Residential and nursing care take 62.8% of the 65 and over long term budget. The average cost to councils of a week of residential or nursing care was £1,185.55, and of an hour of home care bought from an outside provider £23.56.", "cards": [ { "v": "£29.4bn", "l": "gross council spend on adult social care, 2024-25" }, { "v": "£12.0bn", "l": "long term care for people aged 65 and over" }, { "v": "£3.6bn", "l": "paid back in charges by people aged 65 and over" }, { "v": "£1,186", "l": "average weekly cost of a care home place to councils" } ], "bars": { "ariaLabel": "Council spending on long term care for people aged 65 and over by setting, England, 2024-25", "note": "Gross current expenditure, £m, 2024-25. Source: DHSC Adult social care finance report, Table 44.", "rows": [ { "label": "Residential care", "display": "£4,967m", "value": 4967.4 }, { "label": "Home care", "display": "£2,835m", "value": 2835.4 }, { "label": "Nursing care", "display": "£2,581m", "value": 2581.1 }, { "label": "Direct payments", "display": "£682m", "value": 682.1 }, { "label": "Supported living", "display": "£512m", "value": 512.2 }, { "label": "Other community support", "display": "£259m", "value": 259.2 }, { "label": "Supported accommodation", "display": "£178m", "value": 178.1 } ] }, "trend": { "ariaLabel": "Charges paid by people aged 65 and over for long term care, England", "note": "Client contributions for long term care, people aged 65 and over, £m cash, 2018-19 to 2024-25, from each edition's Table 7. Editions restate earlier years, so read small changes with care. Source: NHS England and DHSC.", "rows": [ { "label": "2018-19", "display": "£2,228m", "value": 2228.1 }, { "label": "2019-20", "display": "£2,373m", "value": 2373.3 }, { "label": "2020-21", "display": "£2,181m", "value": 2180.7 }, { "label": "2021-22", "display": "£2,382m", "value": 2382.4 }, { "label": "2022-23", "display": "£2,629m", "value": 2629.3 }, { "label": "2023-24", "display": "£3,123m", "value": 3122.5 }, { "label": "2024-25", "display": "£3,557m", "value": 3556.7 } ] } }, "councils": { "eyebrow": "Council by council", "heading": "How much of the cost older people pay back varies from council to council", "intro": "Dividing each council's charges income from people aged 65 and over by what it spends on their long term care gives a rough measure of how much of the bill comes back from the people being cared for. The median council recovers 29.1 per cent. The highest, Thurrock, recovers 54.1 per cent; the lowest, Hackney, 8.6 per cent. The means test is set nationally, though councils have some discretion over charges for care at home, and the spread also reflects who each council supports: their income and savings, the mix of care home and home care, and how many better off residents arrange care privately and so never appear in council figures. The data does not separate these, and the ranking is not a measure of how generous a council is.", "top": { "ariaLabel": "Councils recovering the highest share of 65 and over long term care spend in charges", "note": "Client contributions from people aged 65 and over as a share of gross spend on their long term care, 2024-25. Computed from the DHSC per council finance data; the 153 councils sum exactly to the England totals.", "rows": [ { "label": "Thurrock (East of England)", "display": "54.1%", "value": 54.1 }, { "label": "Halton (North West)", "display": "47.2%", "value": 47.2 }, { "label": "Blackpool (North West)", "display": "47.1%", "value": 47.1 }, { "label": "Warwickshire (West Midlands)", "display": "46.5%", "value": 46.5 }, { "label": "East Riding of Yorkshire (Yorkshire and The Humber)", "display": "44.0%", "value": 44.0 }, { "label": "Wolverhampton (West Midlands)", "display": "40.5%", "value": 40.5 }, { "label": "Southend-on-Sea (East of England)", "display": "39.6%", "value": 39.6 }, { "label": "North Somerset (South West)", "display": "39.0%", "value": 39.0 }, { "label": "Darlington (North East)", "display": "38.9%", "value": 38.9 }, { "label": "Sutton (London)", "display": "38.6%", "value": 38.6 }, { "label": "Worcestershire (West Midlands)", "display": "38.4%", "value": 38.4 }, { "label": "Tameside (North West)", "display": "38.4%", "value": 38.4 }, { "label": "Ealing (London)", "display": "38.3%", "value": 38.3 }, { "label": "Torbay (South West)", "display": "38.2%", "value": 38.2 }, { "label": "County Durham (North East)", "display": "38.1%", "value": 38.1 } ] }, "bottom": { "ariaLabel": "Councils recovering the lowest share of 65 and over long term care spend in charges", "note": "The ten lowest on the same measure.", "rows": [ { "label": "Kensington and Chelsea (London)", "display": "16.4%", "value": 16.4 }, { "label": "Slough (South East)", "display": "16.2%", "value": 16.2 }, { "label": "Brent (London)", "display": "16.2%", "value": 16.2 }, { "label": "Merton (London)", "display": "16.2%", "value": 16.2 }, { "label": "Leicester (East Midlands)", "display": "15.3%", "value": 15.3 }, { "label": "Westminster (London)", "display": "15.3%", "value": 15.3 }, { "label": "Hammersmith and Fulham (London)", "display": "12.9%", "value": 12.9 }, { "label": "Newham (London)", "display": "11.8%", "value": 11.8 }, { "label": "Tower Hamlets (London)", "display": "9.5%", "value": 9.5 }, { "label": "Hackney (London)", "display": "8.6%", "value": 8.6 } ] } }, "people": { "eyebrow": "Who gets support", "heading": "396,300 people aged 65 and over were getting long term care from their council", "intro": "Councils in England received 1,301,885 requests for support from new clients aged 65 and over in 2024-25. On 31 March 2025, 396,300 people in that age group were receiving long term care arranged by their council: 154,330 in residential or nursing homes and 241,870 in the community, mostly at home. Of those, 46,235 were paying the full cost themselves for care the council arranged. Beyond them are people who pay care homes directly: the ONS estimates 37.0 per cent of England's 372,035 care home residents were self funders in 2022 to 2023, from 26.4 per cent in the North East to 47.5 per cent in the South East. Self funders are the group whose bills free personal care would change most directly.", "cards": [ { "v": "1,301,885", "l": "requests for support from new clients aged 65 and over, 2024-25" }, { "v": "396,300", "l": "aged 65 and over in long term council care, 31 March 2025" }, { "v": "154,330", "l": "of them in residential or nursing homes" }, { "v": "37%", "l": "of care home residents pay their own way (ONS)" } ], "bars": { "ariaLabel": "Share of care home residents who are self funders by region, England, 2022 to 2023", "note": "Self funded residents as a percentage of all care home residents, 1 March 2022 to 28 February 2023. Source: ONS, Care homes and estimating the self funding population, Table 3 (experimental estimates with confidence intervals of about 3 to 4 points).", "rows": [ { "label": "South East", "display": "47.5%", "value": 47.5 }, { "label": "South West", "display": "41.5%", "value": 41.5 }, { "label": "East", "display": "40.0%", "value": 40.0 }, { "label": "East Midlands", "display": "37.2%", "value": 37.2 }, { "label": "West Midlands", "display": "36.4%", "value": 36.4 }, { "label": "Yorkshire and the Humber", "display": "32.7%", "value": 32.7 }, { "label": "North West", "display": "30.2%", "value": 30.2 }, { "label": "London", "display": "28.0%", "value": 28.0 }, { "label": "North East", "display": "26.4%", "value": 26.4 } ] } }, "scotland": { "eyebrow": "The Scottish model", "heading": "Scotland has paid for personal care since 2002. The weekly payment is now £260.30", "intro": "Free personal care began in Scotland for people aged 65 and over on 1 July 2002 and was extended to adults of any age in April 2019. At home the personal care itself is free, though other help such as housework can be charged. In a care home, the council pays a flat weekly amount towards the fee of a self funding resident, £260.30 for personal care and £117.10 for nursing care from April 2026, and the resident pays the rest, including accommodation and living costs. In 2024-25, 10,780 of 28,340 long stay residents aged 65 and over, 38 per cent, received those payments, costing £186m. A further 47,560 people aged 65 and over received personal care at home, at an estimated £538m; with adults under 65 the personal care at home bill was £842m. The payment was frozen at £171 a week from 2015-16 to 2017-18 and has risen faster since 2021-22.", "cards": [ { "v": "£260.30", "l": "weekly personal care payment, 2026-27" }, { "v": "10,780", "l": "self funding care home residents paid for, 2024-25" }, { "v": "£186m", "l": "care home payments to self funders aged 65 and over" }, { "v": "£538m", "l": "personal care at home, aged 65 and over" } ], "bars": { "ariaLabel": "Scotland's weekly free personal care payment for care home residents, by year", "note": "Flat weekly payment towards the personal care element of a self funder's care home fee. Sources: Scottish Government FPNC methodology, Appendix 1; Scottish Parliament committee report on the 2025-26 rates; mygov.scot for 2026-27.", "rows": [ { "label": "2003-04 to 2007-08", "display": "£145.00", "value": 145.0 }, { "label": "2008-09", "display": "£149.00", "value": 149.0 }, { "label": "2009-10", "display": "£153.00", "value": 153.0 }, { "label": "2010-11", "display": "£156.00", "value": 156.0 }, { "label": "2011-12", "display": "£159.00", "value": 159.0 }, { "label": "2012-13", "display": "£163.00", "value": 163.0 }, { "label": "2013-14", "display": "£166.00", "value": 166.0 }, { "label": "2014-15", "display": "£169.00", "value": 169.0 }, { "label": "2015-16", "display": "£171.00", "value": 171.0 }, { "label": "2016-17", "display": "£171.00", "value": 171.0 }, { "label": "2017-18", "display": "£171.00", "value": 171.0 }, { "label": "2018-19", "display": "£174.00", "value": 174.0 }, { "label": "2019-20", "display": "£177.00", "value": 177.0 }, { "label": "2020-21", "display": "£180.00", "value": 180.0 }, { "label": "2021-22", "display": "£193.50", "value": 193.5 }, { "label": "2022-23", "display": "£212.85", "value": 212.85 }, { "label": "2023-24", "display": "£233.10", "value": 233.1 }, { "label": "2024-25", "display": "£248.70", "value": 248.7 }, { "label": "2025-26", "display": "£254.60", "value": 254.6 }, { "label": "2026-27", "display": "£260.30", "value": 260.3 } ] }, "quote": { "text": "You can get personal care for free from your local council if your care needs assessment shows that you need it. You can get this regardless of your age, income, savings or relationship status.", "source": "mygov.scot, Costs of personal and nursing care (updated 10 June 2026)", "url": "https://www.mygov.scot/personal-nursing-care/costs-of-personal-and-nursing-care" } }, "workforce": { "eyebrow": "Who provides it", "heading": "111,000 vacant care posts in England, a vacancy rate of 7.0 per cent", "intro": "Skills for Care estimates there were 1.60 million filled posts in adult social care in England in 2024/25 and 111,000 vacancies, a rate of 7.0 per cent, down from a peak of 10.5 per cent in 2021/22. Turnover was 23.1 per cent. The median care worker was paid £12.00 an hour in March 2025, 56p above the National Living Wage. Making personal care free would not by itself add carers: if more people come forward for assessed care, the same workforce has to deliver it.", "bars": { "ariaLabel": "Adult social care vacancy rate, England", "note": "Vacancy rate, all sectors, all job roles. Source: Skills for Care, workforce estimates 2024/25, statistical appendix Table 4.14.", "rows": [ { "label": "2016/17", "display": "6.5%", "value": 6.53 }, { "label": "2017/18", "display": "7.0%", "value": 6.97 }, { "label": "2018/19", "display": "7.2%", "value": 7.23 }, { "label": "2019/20", "display": "7.1%", "value": 7.09 }, { "label": "2020/21", "display": "6.8%", "value": 6.8 }, { "label": "2021/22", "display": "10.5%", "value": 10.46 }, { "label": "2022/23", "display": "9.8%", "value": 9.79 }, { "label": "2023/24", "display": "8.3%", "value": 8.25 }, { "label": "2024/25", "display": "7.0%", "value": 7.04 } ] } }, "demand": { "eyebrow": "The ageing population", "heading": "England's over 65s grow by 29 per cent by 2040, its over 75s by 37 per cent", "intro": "The ONS 2024 based projections put England's population aged 65 and over at 10.98 million in mid 2024 and 14.15 million by 2040. Those aged 75 and over, who account for most care, rise from 5.46 million to 7.47 million. The OBR's July 2026 projections put public spending on adult social care at 1.2 per cent of GDP now, rising to 1.8 per cent by 2075-76 before any new policy.", "bars": { "ariaLabel": "Projected population aged 75 and over, England", "note": "People aged 75 and over, mid year, principal projection. Source: ONS National population projections, 2024 based, England summary.", "rows": [ { "label": "2024", "display": "5.46m", "value": 5.461 }, { "label": "2030", "display": "6.08m", "value": 6.077 }, { "label": "2035", "display": "6.66m", "value": 6.665 }, { "label": "2040", "display": "7.47m", "value": 7.474 }, { "label": "2045", "display": "8.18m", "value": 8.179 }, { "label": "2050", "display": "8.56m", "value": 8.558 } ] } }, "tripleLock": { "eyebrow": "How it is paid for", "heading": "The triple lock has raised the State Pension 89 per cent since 2011. Earnings set it 6 times", "intro": "Since April 2011 the basic and new State Pension have risen each year by the highest of average earnings growth, price inflation or 2.5 per cent (with the earnings leg suspended for April 2022). DWP's own record shows earnings set the rise 6 times, prices 6 times and the 2.5 per cent floor 4 times; compounded, the 16 increases from April 2011 to April 2026 add up to 89 per cent. The OBR says the lock has cost around three times what was expected when it began. From April 2030 the Government will keep the inflation and 2.5 per cent floor but, in DWP's words, over time the pension is set to rise in line with average earnings. DWP's analysis of 29 September 2026 puts the saving against the current lock at 15 billion pounds in 2039 to 2040 and 50 billion pounds in 2049 to 2050, in cash terms.", "bars": { "ariaLabel": "State Pension annual increase and the triple lock leg that set it, April 2011 to April 2026", "note": "Annual uprating of the basic and new State Pension and the basis DWP records for it. Sources: DWP Abstract of benefit rate statistics 2025, Table 1; DWP announcement of 4 April 2026 for April 2026.", "rows": [ { "label": "April 2011", "display": "4.6% (prices, RPI)", "value": 4.6, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2012", "display": "5.2% (prices, CPI)", "value": 5.2, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2013", "display": "2.5% (2.5% floor)", "value": 2.5, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2014", "display": "2.7% (prices, CPI)", "value": 2.7, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2015", "display": "2.5% (2.5% floor)", "value": 2.5, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2016", "display": "2.9% (earnings)", "value": 2.9, "tone": "earnings" }, { "label": "April 2017", "display": "2.5% (2.5% floor)", "value": 2.5, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2018", "display": "3.0% (prices, CPI)", "value": 3.0, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2019", "display": "2.6% (earnings)", "value": 2.6, "tone": "earnings" }, { "label": "April 2020", "display": "3.9% (earnings)", "value": 3.9, "tone": "earnings" }, { "label": "April 2021", "display": "2.5% (2.5% floor)", "value": 2.5, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2022", "display": "3.1% (prices, CPI)", "value": 3.1, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2023", "display": "10.1% (prices, CPI)", "value": 10.1, "tone": "other" }, { "label": "April 2024", "display": "8.5% (earnings)", "value": 8.5, "tone": "earnings" }, { "label": "April 2025", "display": "4.1% (earnings)", "value": 4.1, "tone": "earnings" }, { "label": "April 2026", "display": "4.8% (earnings)", "value": 4.8, "tone": "earnings" } ] }, "scenario": { "ariaLabel": "OBR projection of State Pension spending under three uprating rules, per cent of GDP", "note": "State Pension spending as a share of GDP under the OBR's July 2026 baseline (triple lock continues) and its two alternatives. The OBR's figures predate the Government's announcement; its earnings path is a guide to the adjusted lock, not a costing of it. Source: OBR Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026, Chart 3.11.", "years": [ "2030-31", "2040-41", "2050-51", "2060-61", "2075-76" ], "rows": [ { "year": "2030-31", "tripleLock": 4.98, "earnings": 4.98, "cpi": 4.98 }, { "year": "2040-41", "tripleLock": 5.51, "earnings": 5.25, "cpi": 4.56 }, { "year": "2050-51", "tripleLock": 6.17, "earnings": 5.57, "cpi": 4.08 }, { "year": "2060-61", "tripleLock": 7.26, "earnings": 6.21, "cpi": 3.84 }, { "year": "2075-76", "tripleLock": 8.61, "earnings": 6.79, "cpi": 3.25 } ] }, "quote": { "text": "In any given year it will go up by at least inflation or 2.5% and anything more that is needed to retain that value. This means that over time the State Pension is set to rise in line with average earnings.", "source": "DWP, State Pension uprating analysis 2026 (29 September 2026)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-uprating-analysis-2026" } }, "questions": { "eyebrow": "Questions this raises", "heading": "What the figures do not settle", "items": [ { "q": "Would care homes become free?", "a": "No. The announcement covers personal care only. Bed and board, the accommodation and living part of a care home fee, stays means tested, as in Scotland, where a self funder receives a flat weekly payment towards the fee and pays the rest. For scale, Scotland's personal care payment is £260.30 a week and the average cost to English councils of a week in a care home is £1,185.55. The level of any English payment has not been set." }, { "q": "What would it cost?", "a": "No official costing has been published. The obvious sum, the £3.6bn older people pay councils in charges, overstates it because much of that is for accommodation, and understates it because people who fund their care privately are not counted and some would now come forward. Scotland's figures cannot be scaled to England simply: the payment rates, eligibility and the mix of home and residential care differ. This page will add the Casey commission's figures when they are published." }, { "q": "Does the triple lock change cut anyone's pension?", "a": "Not in cash terms. The Government says the current lock runs until April 2030, and after that the pension still rises every year by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent. What changes is that it would no longer take the highest of earnings, prices and 2.5 per cent every year; over time it would track average earnings. The savings DWP projects are against what the current lock would have paid, not cuts to today's pension." }, { "q": "How does this compare with the cap on care costs?", "a": "The 2021 plan for a lifetime cap on personal care costs in England was postponed in November 2022 and cancelled in July 2024 before it took effect. Free personal care is a different design: the state pays for personal care from the start for those assessed as needing it, rather than after a lifetime limit is reached." }, { "q": "When will the figures change?", "a": "DHSC's 2025 to 2026 finance and activity reports are due in autumn 2026, Skills for Care's 2026 workforce report on 14 October 2026, and the Scottish Government's 2025-26 free personal and nursing care statistics around November 2026. Each will be read into this page when it is published." } ] }, "sources": [ { "name": "Prime Minister's Office and DHSC, Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets out plans for a new National Care Service (29 September 2026)", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-andy-burnham-sets-out-plans-for-a-new-national-care-service" }, { "name": "DHSC, Adult social care finance report, England, 2024 to 2025", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/adult-social-care-finance-report-england-2024-to-2025" }, { "name": "DHSC, Adult social care activity report, England, 2024 to 2025 (tables corrected 16 June 2026)", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/adult-social-care-activity-report-england-2024-to-2025" }, { "name": "NHS England, Adult Social Care Activity and Finance Report, 2018-19 to 2023-24 editions (client contributions series)", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/adult-social-care-activity-and-finance-report" }, { "name": "Scottish Government, Free Personal and Nursing Care, Scotland, 2024-25", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.scot/publications/free-personal-and-nursing-care-scotland-2024-25/" }, { "name": "mygov.scot, Costs of personal and nursing care (2026-27 rates)", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.mygov.scot/personal-nursing-care/costs-of-personal-and-nursing-care" }, { "name": "Scottish Parliament Health, Social Care and Sport Committee, 1st Report 2025 (2025-26 rates)", "licence": "Scottish Parliament copyright, quoted", "url": "https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/Committees/Report/HSCS/2025/3/12/" }, { "name": "Skills for Care, The state of the adult social care sector and workforce in England, 2025", "licence": "Skills for Care, attributed", "url": "https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/Adult-Social-Care-Workforce-Data/Workforce-intelligence/publications/national-information/The-state-of-the-adult-social-care-sector-and-workforce-in-England.aspx" }, { "name": "ONS, Care homes and estimating the self funding population, England: 2022 to 2023", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/socialcare/articles/carehomesandestimatingtheselffundingpopulationengland/2022to2023" }, { "name": "ONS, National population projections: 2024 based", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/nationalpopulationprojections/2024based" }, { "name": "OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2026", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-july-2026/" }, { "name": "DWP, Abstract of DWP benefit rate statistics 2025", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/abstract-of-dwp-benefit-rate-statistics-2025" }, { "name": "DWP, Over 12 million pensioners to receive £575 State Pension boost (4 April 2026)", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-12-million-pensioners-to-receive-575-state-pension-boost" }, { "name": "DWP, State Pension uprating analysis 2026 (29 September 2026)", "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/state-pension-uprating-analysis-2026" } ], "caveats": [ "The policy figures (the 15 billion and 50 billion pound savings, the timetable) are the Government's own projections and plans, quoted as published. DWP describes its analysis as illustrative and not a forecast.", "England's finance figures are gross current expenditure by councils, which counts spending before client contributions are deducted. Client contributions are what people pay councils for council arranged care; care bought privately from providers is not in these figures.", "The share of spend recovered in charges is a computed ratio for each council, not a published statistic. Contributions include charges for accommodation as well as care, so it is not a measure of what free personal care would remove.", "England's activity figures come from new client level data and are official statistics in development; requests for support are not comparable with years before 2024 to 2025. Finance and activity use different definitions of long term care, so cost per person is not derived.", "Scotland's care home expenditure is estimated by the Scottish Government and counts payments to self funders only; residents whose place is funded by the council are not in it. The personal care at home figures are estimates scaled up from a week's spend.", "The ONS self funder estimates are experimental, cover care home residents only, and are for 2022 to 2023, the latest edition.", "The OBR's pension scenarios were published in July 2026, before the triple lock announcement, and assume the current lock continues in the baseline.", "Figures are in cash terms unless stated." ] }